I Play rightfield, it’s important you know

The recent induction of Andre Dawson into the baseball Hall of Fame has spurred quite a bit of discussion in the baseball and specifically sabremetric community about just how good he really was, and who might have a better case for induction. I wrote a few days ago that I would have voted for six players on the ballot this year, but not for Dawson. He is to me a borderline candidate and as a proponent of a small hall, unless I'm sure the candidate definitely belongs, I wouldn't vote for enshrinement. After looking at the usually evidence (career stats, yearly average, black ink, Keltner test, etc) I remain unsure that Dawson is significantly better than a lot of outfielders that don't belong in the Hall. As a further test, I went to Baseball-Reference.com and looked up a little more data for comparison. Here's what I found:

Chart A: Average 162 game performance - neutralized

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
A	616	90	175	32	6	28	103	21	37	93	0.284	0.329	0.49	0.819	99
B	594	107	187	31	8	12	66	61	96	63	0.314	0.41	0.455	0.864	111
C	616	88	180	35	5	22	104	10	45	100	0.291	0.34	0.473	0.813	100
D	594	91	157	26	3	30	96	12	74	129	0.265	0.346	0.467	0.813	99
E	632	96	184	28	6	28	111	4	50	110	0.29	0.344	0.488	0.832	106
F	654	93	156	31	5	25	88	5	90	106	0.277	0.377	0.479	0.855	102
G	607	99	177	31	5	26	109	13	69	91	0.291	0.362	0.487	0.849	108
H	568	78	169	39	5	15	90	9	52	60	0.297	0.359	0.464	0.823	94
I	597	92	181	23	12	3	47	55	35	86	0.303	0.345	0.396	0.741	82
J	573	89	164	32	4	25	94	6	73	92	0.287	0.365	0.488	0.835	103
K	567	78	170	26	7	6	66	27	34	91	0.3	0.338	0.402	0.74	78
L	582	101	163	29	3	35	111	14	87	149	0.281	0.377	0.524	0.902	115
M	578	87	183	40	11	18	99	9	53	58	0.317	0.375	0.518	0.893	113
N	616	106	192	22	11	4	45	45	92	67	0.311	0.401	0.403	0.804	100
O	578	94	164	31	5	27	91	14	62	109	0.283	0.354	0.495	0.85	101
P	595	96	166	29	2	26	100	22	63	76	0.279	0.364	0.467	0.831	97
Q	625	87	163	32	4	30	107	17	39	102	0.26	0.307	0.466	0.773	90

 

Players A-Q are all outfielders chosen for a few specific criteria. Four are members of the Hall of Fame and many of the rest were or are strong candidates. They were also chosen because they had a similar skill set to either Andre Dawson or Tim Raines (my favorite among the outfield candidates.) Can you tell which ones belong in the HoF and who doesn't?

What if I throw in this information?

Player	Seasons	Black Ink Test	MVP awards
A	21	11	1
B	23	20	0
C	19	26	1
D	18	31	2
E	16	33	1
F	20	15	0
G	22	4	0
H	19	9	0
I	19	18	0
J	17	15	1
K	18	12	1
L	21	35	1
M	13	1	0
N	17	16	0
O	18	6	0
P	19	8	1
Q	16	9	0

 

This probably disqualifies M for having too short a career and only 1 point on the Black Ink Test. G, H, O, P, and Q were clearly not dominant in their times. Most of these players racked up impressive numbers due to longevity rather than a series of great seasons. Are C, D, E, and L the Hall of Famers? They all won MVP awards and the average Hall of Famer only scores 26 on the Black Ink Test. In fact of those four only E – Jim Rice and L – Reggie Jackson are in. C& D are Dave Parker and Dale Murphy, two candidates who have received some support but will likely never get in. The other two Hall of Famers are A- the newly inducted Andre Dawson and G – Dave Winfield. Neither stands out as an especially strong candidate, and Winfield especially looks like a poor choice when you look at the second chart. I don't think this proves that Dawson and Winfield should be out and Parker and Murphy in, but it does illustrate the problem of primarily looking at career statistics and not looking at players in context.

Here's the whole chart with names included:

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC	Seasons	Black Ink Test	MVP awards
Dawson	616	90	175	32	6	28	103	21	37	93	0.284	0.329	0.49	0.819	99	21	11	1
Raines	594	107	187	31	8	12	66	61	96	63	0.314	0.41	0.455	0.864	111	23	20	0
Parker	616	88	180	35	5	22	104	10	45	100	0.291	0.34	0.473	0.813	100	19	26	1
Murphy	594	91	157	26	3	30	96	12	74	129	0.265	0.346	0.467	0.813	99	18	31	2
Rice	632	96	184	28	6	28	111	4	50	110	0.29	0.344	0.488	0.832	106	16	33	1
Dw. Evans	654	93	156	31	5	25	88	5	90	106	0.277	0.377	0.479	0.855	102	20	15	0
Winfield	607	99	177	31	5	26	109	13	69	91	0.291	0.362	0.487	0.849	108	22	4	0
H. McRae	568	78	169	39	5	15	90	9	52	60	0.297	0.359	0.464	0.823	94	19	9	0
W. Wilson	597	92	181	23	12	3	47	55	35	86	0.303	0.345	0.396	0.741	82	19	18	0
Lynn	573	89	164	32	4	25	94	6	73	92	0.287	0.365	0.488	0.835	103	17	15	1
W. McGee	567	78	170	26	7	6	66	27	34	91	0.3	0.338	0.402	0.74	78	18	12	1
R. Jackson	582	101	163	29	3	35	111	14	87	149	0.281	0.377	0.524	0.902	115	21	35	1
B. Herman	578	87	183	40	11	18	99	9	53	58	0.317	0.375	0.518	0.893	113	13	1	0
B. Butler	616	106	192	22	11	4	45	45	92	67	0.311	0.401	0.403	0.804	100	17	16	0
Burks	578	94	164	31	5	27	91	14	62	109	0.283	0.354	0.495	0.85	101	18	6	0
Baylor	595	96	166	29	2	26	100	22	63	76	0.279	0.364	0.467	0.831	97	19	8	1
J. Carter	625	87	163	32	4	30	107	17	39	102	0.26	0.307	0.466	0.773	90	16	9	0